Showing posts with label 2015 season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2015 season. Show all posts

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Short-Term Pain Leads to Long-Term Gain (Just Ask the NHL)

 
Cory Chamblin's Saskatchewan Roughriders have had one of the roughest times adjusting to the CFL's new rules.

After seeing scoring and offensive production take a hit in recent years, the Canadian Football League's Board of Governors knew it was no coincidence that both TV ratings and attendance were down as well. 

In an attempt to enhance the on-field product and, ultimately, the appeal of the game to fans, the league announced several new rule changes in April that were designed to spark scoring and, as a result, the entertainment level of CFL games as well. 

Through four games of the 2015 CFL season, scoring numbers have indeed increased. Teams are averaging a combined 47.6 points per game compared to last year’s average of 45.5. In fact, the average after week three was actually 53.5 points per game, however a couple rainy affairs this week in Ottawa and Regina brought the overall number down. 

There's also a whopping 12 receivers on pace for 1,000 yard seasons, an incredibly high amount considering last season only saw 3 pass-catchers eclipse the millennium plateau. 

But despite all this, the fans are still upset with the rule changes. Rather, they're terribly upset with what the on-field product has become. Some can't handle the increase in penalties, while others feel like the league is taking away the integrity of the game by penalizing any sort of defence. 

It sounds all too familiar, doesn't it? 

Remember when the NHL introduced a plethora of rule changes skewed toward offence following the 2004-2005 lockout season? It was their own attempt to enhance the appeal of the game to fans by emphasizing entertainment, skill and competition on the ice. 

Similarly to the 2015 CFL season, the 2005-2006 NHL season featured significant increases in the amount of goals scored and penalties called per contest. Their increases were much more dramatic, however, as the average amount of goals scored per game jumped 19.84% from 5.14 to 6.16, while penalties sky-rocketed from 9.9 minor penalties per game in 2003-2004 to 12.76 in 2005-2006, a 28.75% increase. 

I can recall so many hockey fans being disgusted with the so-called "New NHL".

They felt the rule changes diminished what once was a terrific game, mostly a result of the changes supposedly encouraging offence, flashy-plays and individual-efforts over defensive hockey and team play. And to some degree, they were right. The rule changes absolutely favoured offence, much like those of the CFL's do. 

The NHL introduced a zero tolerance policy to "obstruction", which includes hooking, holding, slashing and any other infraction that a defensive player might use to slow down an opponent. It was believed during the 2005-2006 season that there was nothing a defender could do to defend anymore without being penalized. Players on the attack seemed to often embellish, knowing that diving will likely result in a penalty for the opponent more times than not with how hard officials were pressing to enforce the new rule changes. 

Hockey was supposedly ruined. The integrity of the game was lost.

Now that has to sound a little familiar, no? 

The CFL's new interpretation of illegal contact is very much relatable to the NHL's enforcement of obstruction infractions. Gone are the days of defensive backs clutching and grabbing to impede a receivers' route. There's a zero tolerance policy to this rule too, as it seems an official will throw an orange flag should a defender even breathe on a potential pass-catcher past the five-yard contact zone. 

The NHL implemented several other rules in favour of offence, such as prohibiting goaltenders from playing the puck outside the new trapezoid, permitting two-line passes and decreasing the maximum size of goaltenders' equipment. Many thought every game would be played like an All-Star game, becoming a contact-free, wide open, high-scoring and overall boring game. 

But that was not the case, and after a season of adjustments in 2005-2006, the NHL's rule changes began to really pay off. The average amount of penalties per game has steadily decreased to this day, while as of the 2013-2014 season, the average amount of goals scored per game nearly came back down to what it originally was 10 years prior. However as the NHL had originally hoped, the game is still more open than before and the product is much more entertaining. The upset fans came back long ago and since that, the NHL's reaped from the financial success that ensued. 

It's the perfect example how short-term pain will lead to long-term gain, something the CFL has stressed since announcing the new rule changes a few months back.

That's been their moniker, and with penalties drastically increasing since last season, the short-term pain is definitely there. 

But as the NHL has shown us, we have to trust that it'll all sort itself out in the future and penalties will then return to the norm. The NHL hardly has a "zero tolerance policy" towards obstruction infractions anymore, as officials now give the players a longer leash and, sometimes, the benefit-of-the-doubt when deciding on whether to call a penalty or not. 

NHL players adjusted to the new rules and we should trust that those of the CFL will do the same. As coaches move farther away from the physical defensive backs that formerly excelled in impeding a receivers' route to the now-desired speedy cover-guys, we'll see more good defence and the return of man-coverage. 

The officials will improve too, and they'll give defenders more rights once they finish drilling the new rules into their heads first.

Also to be noted, a very large majority of the penalties called such as offside, illegal procedure and holding have nothing to do with the rule-changes, but rather the players themselves making bad mistakes and paying the price. Penalties are typically higher at the start of the season anyway, so you can certainly expect to see a decrease in the amount of preventable penalties as the weeks go on.

So keep the faith, football fans. The CFL is simply in an adjustment period, and it's a period the NHL experienced in 2005-2006 following their own rule changes. 

Soon enough, the steady decline in the amount of orange nylon flung per game will noticeably become a drastic decrease, while it at the same time, defensive coordinators will return to calling games closer to the way they did before. They'll no longer be limited to almost exclusively running zone coverage in fear of the poor results that ensue in calling man-coverage.

A new wave of defensive backs will arrive and the officials will grant them a little more freedom. Offences will still have more space and open-field like the league desires, but the mentality of "defence wins championships" will return as well. 

The CFL expected penalties to increase when they decided to alter the rule book. They knew it would frustrate fans and possibly drive some away from the game. But they also knew that in the end, it would be worth it.

Ask the NHL and they'll reiterate the same thing: short-term pain leads to long-term gain. 

The future's bright, people.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

2015 CFL Predictions: The Bold and the Obvious

Hamilton Tiger-Cats returner Brandon Banks is one of many players expected to have huge seasons in 2015.


The 2015 season kicks off on Thursday and I have a few predictions to put out there before I hear Rod Black's voice crack when he exclaims: "And the 2015 CFL season is officially kicked off." 

I'd like to be able to say that I'm completely confident in my predictions, but that would be a lie. The bold ones are essentially gut-feelings, so be sure to come back to this post in a couple months and laugh at what was wrote. I'll be on Twitter to accept the ridicule with no potential sorry excuse. 

You can read a detailed piece of my West Division predictions here, and East Division predictions here.

Playoff predictions: 

West Semi-Final: Edmonton over Winnipeg

East Semi-Final: Saskatchewan over Montreal

West Final: Edmonton over Calgary

East Final: Hamilton over Saskatchewan

Grey Cup: Hamilton over Edmonton

There you have it, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are my projected Grey Cup champions. Keep in mind, while predicting the two teams that meet in the Grey Cup is logical, predicting the outcome of a game that won't be played for another five months is a complete toss-up. I'm going with the Ti-Cats simply because it'll be their third consecutive trip to the big game. 

And now for some individual stats...

Projected 2015 Individual Leaderboards: 

A) Quarterbacks: 

You'll hear me refer to the new rules the CFL implemented frequently throughout this post. I think we'll see an improvement in the offensive play, although defences will still make games very competitive. 

Starting with the quarterbacks, I think we could possibly see up to five 4,000 yard passers. Saskatchewan's Darian Durant believes he can pass for over 6,000 yards, which I don't buy at all and would be impressed to see a single signal-caller join the 5,000 yard club. Durant, Mike Reilly, Zach Collaros, Bo Levi Mitchell and Drew Willy are all solid bets to have big seasons if they can manage to stay healthy. 

Projected passing totals: 

1. Mike Reilly, Edmonton: 4,700 yards passing, 36 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

2. Bo Levi Mitchell, Calgary: 4,200 yards, 31 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

3. Drew Willy, Winnipeg: 4,150 yards passing, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

4. Zach Collaros, Hamilton: 4,100 yards passing, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions

5. Darian Durant, Saskatchewan: 3,800 yards passing, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions. 

B) Runningbacks 

The new rules will also affect the CFL's run game and it's bell-cows, slightly diminishing their involvement in the offence with possibly less 1st down hand-offs. Calgary's Jon Cornish and BC's Andrew Harris are the only two runningbacks that I see surpassing 1,000 yards. Cornish is an easy bet as he did so last year in only nine games, while Harris as also an elite 'back who'll be playing in an offence that should be very run-heavy. Montreal's Tyrell Sutton and Edmonton's Kendial Lawrence, pending what his actual role in the offence will be, may not reach the four-figure plateau, but could challenge Harris for the total-yards-from-scrimmage crown. 

Projected rushing totals: 

1. Jon Cornish, Calgary: 1,500 yards, 11 touchdowns 

2. Andrew Harris, BC: 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns 

3. Tyrell Sutton, Montreal: 850 yards, seven touchdowns

4. Paris Cotton, Winnipeg: 750 yards, five touchdowns. 

5. Anthony Allen, Saskatchewan: 700 yards, five touchdowns. 

C) Receivers: 

As someone who loves offence and superstars, it was somewhat sad to see only three pass-catchers individually account for 1,000 yards of receiving last year. Since I have the quarterbacks' numbers improving in 2015, I can say confidently that the receivers' numbers will follow suit. With defensive backs no longer being able to clutch and grab, and with hopefully a clean bill of health, our superstar receivers whom the fans love ever so much will return. 

Projected receiving totals: 

1. Adarius Bowman, Edmonton: 1,500 yards, 10 touchdowns 

2. Eric Rogers, Calgary: 1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns 

3. Weston Dressler, Saskatchewan: 1,300 yards, 7 touchdowns

4. Chad Owens, Toronto: 1,250 yards, 9 touchdowns 

5. Clarence Denmark, Winnipeg: 1,200 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns

CFL awards: 

Most Outstanding Player: QB Mike Reilly, Edmonton

He'll have a monster year with the Eskimos, leading them to the Grey Cup. Both his passing and rushing stats will jump off the page. 
 
Update: Mike Reilly is likely done for the season with a knee injury. My new pick is Bomber QB Drew Willy. 

Most Outstanding Canadian: RB Jon Cornish, Calgary 

This would be the third consecutive year Cornish will have won the award. If he stays healthy, he can't be stopped. 

Most Outstanding Defensive Player: LB Dexter McCoil, Edmonton 

A sightly bold pick here, but McCoil was a ball-hawk in his rookie season. He has freakish athleticism and led the Eskimos in tackles, defensive touchdowns and was tied for the CFL's interception lead. 

Most Outstanding Rookie: G Sukh Chungh, Winnipeg

Drafted second overall by the Bombers not even two months ago, Sukh Chungh has already earned a starting position. His incredible athleticism and intelligence have impressed Winnipeg's coaching staff every day. 

Most Outstanding Special Teams Player: PR Brandon Banks, Hamilton

The league installed another new rule to open up the return game, so I definitely think this award will go to a returner. Banks is part of a great special teams group led by coordinator Jeff Reinebold that will be dynamic in 2015. 

Most Outstanding Lineman: G Brendon Labatte, Saskatchewan:

With former Calgary Stampeders centre Brett Jones gone to the NFL, I think Labatte is now the clear-cut top offensive lineman in the CFL.

10 Thoughts and Predictions: 

1. Much like in 2014, the Eastern Division will start terribly slow. The Argonauts play their first four games out West followed by a divisional game in Hamilton before finally playing their home-opener August 8th against Saskatchewan. 

The Alouettes play Calgary twice in their opening five games and could start 1-4, while the Redblacks are still gelling as an offence and start the year out West, so they'll possibly either start 1-6 or 2-5. Either way, CFL fans may revert back to insisting the league should implement a single-division playoff seeding format by labour day. 

2. If the Redblacks start as slow as I think they will, there's no way quarterback Henry Burris isn't holding a clipboard as Thomas Demarco's back-up by week nine. Burris will have no excuse as Ottawa did a great job acquiring talent to build around him, but still, it won't be enough to solve his accuracy woes. 

3. Training camp may be wrapped up, but there's still somewhat of a quarterback controversy brewing in "La Belle Province". Jonathon Crompton is currently Montreal's starter, but head coach Tom Higgins has made it pretty clear the 27 year-old pivot's job is far from secure. 

We already know Crompton isn't a field-general who'll carry the team to victory each week with big numbers. He's a game manager, but he still wins. As long as Crompton keeps his team's record around an even .500, he'll keep his job, no matter how he performes. But I can't see this happening. Dan Lefevour takes over by week six. 

4. BC Lions defensive end Alex Bazzie will be the lone breakout edge-rusher from 2014 to suffer a sophomore slump. Bazzie hit double-digits with his sack total last season, however he's currently listed as a back-up and could've been a product of the system last year. I also think Toronto's Ricky Foley, BC's Khreem Smith and Ottawa's Justin Capicciotti will see their numbers fall off. 

6. Out in Edmonton, I think Shamawd Chambers regresses in his fourth season with the Eskimos. A former first round pick, Chambers will start the season on the six game injured list, giving veterans Nate Coehoorn and Cory Watson a chance to lock down their spot, while 2014 first round draft pick Devon Bailey will get an opportunity as well. Chambers' season high for receiving yards is a mere 465. 

7. The Saskatchewan Roughriders will lead the league in penalties. It's a known fact that they had the most holding infractions called against them in 2014, and if they weren't first in total-penalty-yards-against, they were close. I think Saskatchewan's veteran secondary will struggle to adjust the to new role changes and it will hurt the team all season. 

8. There'll be a high number of veteran defensive backs that'll be on the bench by mid-season. Certain players that depend on their ability to play physical and impede a receiver's route will be exposed by the new rules and eventually replaced. Geoff Tisdale was the first to experience this, who's next? 

Patrick Watkins? Terrell Maze? Brandon Stewart? 

I expect many veterans to be affected. 

9. The speedy Brandon Banks will out-duel Ottawa's Chris Williams in the return game this year. While numbers show Brandon Banks is pretty average, I'm still predicting he'll have a massive year with Jeff Reinebold drawing up returns. Meanwhile, Ottawa's special teams are a mess that perhaps not even Williams can meet his full potential in, however the new rules will undoubtedly see punt return averages increase, and Williams will be right behind Banks. I'll set the 'over/under' for punt return touchdowns for the two as 5.5 and will take the 'over' for Banks.

10. Toronto's defence may have holes all over, but I'm quite confident newly signed defensive back A.J. Jefferson will stand out and earn All-Star nods. Jefferson, a four year NFL veteran, locked down receivers during the pre-season and has an interception to show for it. Expect teams to shy away from throwing towards him once the lanky 6'1", 200lbs cornerback pads his stats early on.