Week Four CFL Picks



Returner Brandon Banks and the Hamilton Tiger Cats will head to Montreal to take on the Alouettes, highlighting week four action. 

Season record: 4-12

Last week: 1-3 

Hamilton (2-1) at Montreal (1-2)

The Tiger-Cats are two weeks removed from their utter beat down of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Investors Group Field. They entered their bye week on a high note, however despite the time off, didn't get much more positive news on the injury-front.

No matter how sensational Rakeem Cato might be, giving Ti-Cats' Defensive Coordinator Orlando Steinauer two weeks to prepare for a rookie quarterback is almost unfair. He'll make Cato's first experience against Hamilton hell, sending all kinds of blitz packages and different looks. I expect Hamilton's defence to create turnovers and get the ball back to Zach Collaros and the offence. 

If Montreal can protect the football, they'll have a chance to win this game. But their main priority should be special teams, where their lacklustre unit is facing the most dangerous returner in the CFL: Brandon Banks. Banks is scorching hot and had two punt return touchdowns the last time the Alouettes and Tiger-Cats clashed in the Eastern Final. If punter Boris Bede out-kicks his coverage, it's game over for Montreal. 

For the second straight week, I think the Alouettes will fall short due to their opponent being better on defence and special teams; ultimately winning the game with those units. Banks will have a monster game while Hamilton's defence will create havoc against rookie quarterback Rakeem Cato. 

Pick: Hamilton 

Edmonton (1-1) at Ottawa (2-1) 

Edmonton was far and away the better team when these two teams squared off last week in Commonwealth Stadium, but keep in mind they had the benefit of a week off to prepare for Ottawa, who by contrary was on a short week and also had to travel. For that reason, I don't think this game will be a blow-out. Not even close. 

Dumb penalties, missed tackles and other small mental mistakes cost Ottawa in last week's game. They'll be better prepared on offence and will know what to expect on defence in round two of this go-around. If head coach Rick Campbell can get this team to be fundamentally sound in all three phases, the Redblacks have a chance to win at home. 

Eskimos quarterback Matt Nichols was rather underwhelming in his first start of the season, only completing twelve passes in a 43 point effort. But he took advantage of Ottawa's mistakes and ultimately put the ball in the end zone, throwing three touchdown passes. His best decision was to get the ball to Adarius Bowman, a well known Redblacks-killer, who had 5 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. 

While I still believe both teams match up really well, I think it'll once again be Edmonton's defence who'll prove to be the difference in this game. Ottawa quarterback Henry Burris can't afford to start slow for a fourth straight week or turn the ball over, which I think he'll do given the pressure Edmonton's defensive line generates. The Redblacks will put together an excellent defensive effort of their own, but it won't match Edmonton's. Eskimos win a low scoring affair. 

Pick: Edmonton

BC (1-1) at Saskatchewan (0-3)

Despite having the league's best offence, the Riders are winless due to a terrible defence and numerous awful coaching decisions by Cory Chamblin. Saskatchewan can't stop the pass at any cost, and that's largely due to a scheme that doesn't allow their defensive line to reach their maximum potential and a group of porous defensive backs. That group of defensive backs will be without their only reliable cover option, Weldon Brown, who's done for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

To be completely fair, the Lions probably should be 0-2 right now. But they're not, and now have an opportunity to separate themselves in the standings from Saskatchewan with a win at Mosaic Stadium. You may disagree here, but despite quarterback Travis Lulay's exceptional stat line (34/44 passing, 404 yards, 3 TDs), he didn't seem to play as good as those numbers would indicate. But he was much better than he was the week prior against Ottawa, and as long as the 2011 M.O.P. continues to improve as the weeks go on after hardly playing since late 2013, Lions fans can rest-assured. 

With how their defence has played, the Riders might need Kevin Glenn and co. to put up 40+ points each week for their team to win. However, I expect BC's tandem of Soloman Elimimian and Adam Bighill to take exception and be the first team to slow down Saskatchewan's offence. BC's offence, meanwhile, is improving each week and should carve up this Saskatchewan defence minus Weldon Brown. The Manny Arceneaux show will be in town.

Pick: BC 

Winnipeg (2-1) at Calgary (2-1) 

Despite this game featuring a battle for sole possession of first place in the West Division, the Stampeders are heavily favoured, and for good reason. But don't expect them to walk all over these Blue Bombers. Not at all. 

The Stamps seem to be finding their stride after two questionable outings to open the season. Their defence stepped up big time in Monday's win against Toronto, while their offence did enough in the first half to win the game prior to losing both of their starting offensive tackles.

The Bombers, meanwhile, finally found a way to win without needing quarterback Drew Willy to pass for 300+ yards. Their defence showed up against Montreal, lead by nickel linebacker Chris Randle, who looked much better after his slow start to the season since switching positions from boundary corner, while the defensive line ahead of him finally displayed some signs of life. 

That same Winnipeg defensive line will be a major factor in this game as well. They're going up against a depleted Calgary offensive line and have no excuse to not bring the heat on Bo Levi Mitchell. They also have the task of stopping Jon Cornish, which doesn't seem to be as difficult right now considering how invisible the league's reigning leading rusher has been to start the season. And as I just eluded to, Cornish won't have Dan Federkeil or Edwin Harrison blocking for him either. I fully expect Winnipeg's defence to hold their own at McMahon Stadium, leaving their offence under the microscope. 

The Bombers moved the ball against Montreal but ultimately didn't put it in the endzone. They can't settle for field goals against Calgary and have to establish a run game. Calgary's defence played great against Toronto and are sound at defending everything an offence can offer them. If Winnipeg wants to win this game, they'll need to match the Stamps on defence, be effective on offence in the red-zone and, ideally, need some big plays to go in their favour.

It should be close, but that's a tough task for any team. 

Pick: Calgary

The Next Wave of Shutdown Cornerbacks

 

Winnipeg Blue Bombers' rookie cornerback Johnny Adams (far left) celebrates with teammates after his pick-six against Montreal in week three action.

Meet Johnny Adams, cornerback for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and fellow rookie corner AJ Jefferson, a member of the Toronto Argonauts. These two first-year players have burst onto the scene in the opening weeks of the 2015 CFL season, slowly leading a changing of the guard as to who are the league's top cover-men. You can expect to hear their name's quite a bit over the next few seasons. 

And you should probably know them by now anyway. Adams already has two interceptions for the Blue Bombers in only three career games while, not to be outdone in the same amount of starts, Jefferson has an interception of his own; one he returned 100 yards the other way for a touchdown in Toronto's 42-40 win over Saskatchewan in week two. They've both come in as rookies and earned starting jobs at short-side cornerback, a position typically occupied by a team's best cover-man.

Adams, signed by Winnipeg in early February, is a former Michigan State Spartan who bounced around the NFL from 2013-2014, suiting up for four games with the Buffalo Bills. In college, he was a three-time All-Big 10 selection (2010-2012) and earned first-team honours in his senior season after racking up 35 tackles with three interceptions and 10 pass knockdowns. His best season, though, came in 2011 as a Junior when he also earned first-team honours after collecting 51 tackles, 3 interceptions, 9 pass-defences and three sacks. 

Jefferson, meanwhile, has more of an NFL pedigree to his name. He's recorded 109 career tackles with three interceptions in four seasons split between Arizona and Minnesota, typically slotting in as the third or fourth corner for the Vikings in 2012 and 2013. The former Fresno State standout spent the 2014 season on the Seattle Seahawks' injured-reserve and following his stint with the NFC Champions, Jefferson was out of work until the Argonauts inked him to a contract on the eve of rookie camp this past May. 

 

Toronto Argonauts defensive back #24 AJ Jefferson

Adams and Jefferson been everything their respective clubs could've asked for from two rookies. And while it's still early, you could even very well say that, overall, they've been the league's top two cornerbacks this season. They certainly still have much to prove, however Adams and Jefferson are well on their way to All-Star selections in their rookie campaigns if they can continue to play at such a high level. 

Adams, who stood out at the Blue Bombers' mini-camp in Florida, already has 10 tackles and two interceptions for Winnipeg. His exceptional play in both mini-camp and training camp allowed the Bombers to move Chris Randle to nickel linebacker, a move that is starting to pay dividends after a slow start for the converted cornerback.

Jefferson was fantastic in the pre-season and had a terrific outing against Edmonton in week one, however struggled against Saskatchewan's Ryan Smith the following week. His interception return touchdown against those same Riders covered up some of his mistakes that game, however the 6'1", 190lbs rookie returned to form against his toughest opponent to date in Calgary's Jeff Fuller. Jefferson has nine tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery in three games with the Double Blue. 

They've been the best-of-the-best after three weeks of CFL action and are doing so as raw rookies to the Canadian game. And while it's likely too early to proclaim them as the top cornerbacks in their respective divisions, don't be surprised if they earn that title by the end of the season. With the league's latest rule changes and departure of some great defensive backs like Delvin Breaux to the NFL, the CFL is looking for the next wave of shutdown players.

Johnny Adams and AJ Jefferson might just be the next two up. 

Argos' GM Barker Finds More Diamonds in the Rough

 

Toronto Argonauts' defensive backs Devin Smith (#19) and Akwasi Owuso-Ansah (#9) are just two of the nine rookie starters that general manager Jim Barker found in the off-season.

There are actually three certainties in life: death, taxes and that Jim Barker will find great talent south of the border every off-season.

It's what the Toronto Argonauts' general manager has been known for ever since he joined the Double Blue in 2011. He doesn't sign international players in free agency and never has, instead opting to trust his scouts and find his own players south of the border. 

From receivers Chad Owens and Dontrelle Inman to defenders Marcus Ball and Jalil Carter, Jim Barker has a long list of star players he and his scouts found themselves and brought into the CFL. That list is getting a whole lot longer after the group of American rookies Barker brought to Toronto this year. And as a result of him finding all these diamond-in-the-rough players, the Argos are finding success while also building a tremendously bright future.

Barkers' Argonauts went through more turnover than any other team this off-season. They lost two key players (WR John Chiles and DB Jalil Cater) to the NFL and let the majority of their international free agents walk away, most notably left tackle SirVincent Rogers and receivers Darvin Adams and Jason Barnes. It's yet another example of Barker trusting he and his team's ability to find talent down south. And find talent they did. 

The boatmen have a whopping nine CFL rookies (if you include DT Euclid Cummings) starting in 2015 and despite this, have a 2-1 record and sit tied for first place in the CFL. Toronto's 'Big Three' of first year players at the receiver position- Vidal Hazelton (12-161-1), Kevin Elliott (9-124-2) and Tori Gurley (10-128-3)- have been crucial in Toronto having a top-four passing attack. They boast even more youngsters in their secondary, where potentially one of the league's top cornerbacks in AJ Jefferson is having a great rookie season along with Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Travis Hawkins and Devin Smith, who's quietly been fantastic while collecting 14 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery in three games. And what can I say about defensive tackle Euclid Cummings, who's racked up two sacks in his first season on the active roster after merely spending the final month of the 2014 season on the Argos' practice roster. 

Toronto's also received a major contribution from rookie international centre Greg Van Roten, who's done a formidable job so far filling in for the injured Jeff Keeping. Other depth rookies such as running back Henry Josey have impressed as well.

Give credit to head coach Scott Milanovich for making it work on the field, but be sure to acknowledge his boss, Mr. Jim Barker, for once again saving money by doing a terrific job recruiting his own talent from the 'States. He continually shows why he's one of the best GM's in the country, and every win his young team strings together this year further supports that. 

From starting the season without quarterback Ricky Ray to playing their first five games on the road, the Argos have overcome a lot of adversity after three weeks of play. And did I mention they've done so with fourteen (yes, fourteen! And that doesn't include the injured Ray or Keeping!) new starters, while nine (yes, nine!) are rookies? 

So let's give credit to the often-cranky, often-salty, sideline-headache general manager who's fresh off a three-year contract-extension for the team he's assembled and exceptional rookie class he brought in. The Argos will only get better with experience, and that's why I think the 2015 Boatmen are indeed legitimate.

The Argonauts are starting hot, and Jim Barker and his scouts are one of the biggest reasons why. 

Money Well Spent, Ottawa

 

Redblacks' receiver and member of the fab-five, Brad Sinopoli has been a major contributer to Ottawa's early season success. Photo via Ottawa REDBLACKS (@REDBLACKS)

They didn't come easy, nor did they come cheap, but the Ottawa Redblacks' off-season signings have so far proven to be worth every penny they've been promised in 2015.

The Redblacks, who missed the playoffs in their inaugural season with a 2-16 record, had no choice but to overhaul their passing-offence, acquiring five prized receivers- Chris Williams, Maurice Price, Brad Sinopoli, Ernest Jackson and Greg Ellingson- as well as a stout left tackle in SirVincent Rogers, formerly of the Toronto Argonauts. General Manager Marcel Desjardins identified those two positions as the team's weakest links and addressed them in the best, but most expensive way possible: free agency. 

Not every General Manager is a believer in using free agency to build a team. Many teams have sustained success by finding their own talent south of border and either re-signing or replacing them with a new diamond-in-the-rough player once their contracts are up; not by paying a high price for an established free agent replacement and/or upgrade. 

The Redblacks will one day boast a team deep enough to do that, although they had to start somewhere, much like how Kent Austin had to when he re-built the Hamilton Tiger-Cats after joining them in December of 2012. 

Austin signed numerous free agents in his first-offseason at the helm including DE Brian Bulcke and LB Marcellus Bowman. He then inked S Chris Butler, DB Brandon Stewart and WR Cary Koch to contracts the following off-season in 2014. Having successfully used free agency to kick-start the rebuild and put together part of the team he originally envisioned back in 2012, Austin is now aiming for year-to-year continuity now that something like only six players remain from the team he took over three seasons ago.

After literally and figuratively starting from scratch, this seems to be the approach Desjardins is taking with his own team. And while they didn't come cheap, Ottawa is absolutely getting their money's worth as this version of R-Nation has never seen better days after two wins in two weeks of regular season action.

The Redblacks looked good during their 20-16 win against Montreal, however injuries to Alouettes' quarterbacks Jonathon Crompton and Dan Lefevour undoubtedly helped matters. But any doubts regarding Ottawa's offence were erased in their impressive week two victory over the re-budding BC Lions, as Henry Burris and co. put up 437 total yards of offence while spreading the ball around to seven different receivers on route to 296 yards passing with three touchdowns and one interception. 

Ottawa's remarkable turn-around, having already matched their win total of their first season in the CFL, shouldn't be all that surprising given the amount of talent they brought in on offence to balance out what was already a solid defence on very a competitive team in 2014.

See, this Redblacks offence is totally night-and-day compared to last year. While having a new offensive coordinator and offensive line coach in Jason Maas and Byran Chiu have been huge, I still don't think the results on offence would be anywhere close to as good as they've been so far in 2015 without the additions of Rogers or any of the fab-five. Having numerous dynamic and experienced receivers have been huge, and they've all been contributing. 

Ernest Jackson was the go-to guy in week one, amassing 7 catches for 74 yards and the game-winning touchdown. National receiver and former Ottawa Gee-Gee star quarterback Brad Sinopoli was that guy in week two, hauling in 9 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown during his homecoming game at TD Place against BC.

The most highly-touted of the five, Chris Williams, has been Mr. Consistent, totalling 149 yards as the teams leading receiver while often piling up his yards in chunks as the big-play target, much like he was with the Tiger-Cats in 2011 and 2012. Rounding out the bunch have been former Stampeder Maurice Price (6 catches for 52 yards) and former Tiger-Cat Greg Ellingson, who has 5 grabs of his own for 74 yards with his first touchdown coming in the second half of Saturday night's game against the Lions.

The ball is being spread around evenly and everyone is making plays in this pick-your-poison system. As a result, quarterback Henry Burris appears to be turning back the clock and finding success, proving to everyone that a 40-year old quarterback can still be effective in professional football.

After tossing 14 interceptions versus 11 touchdowns last year, Burris has looked far more comfortable being able to trust his receivers and the scheme he's playing in. While he's already thrown four picks in 2015, much of last year's offensive-woes that resulted in Burris' worst statistical season of his career can be attributed to the poor group of receivers and offensive lineman he was surrounded with. 

Not anymore, however, as Burris is re-gaining his stride with five receivers who can actually catch, run the correct route and read defences at a fast pace. It's all coming together for Ottawa, and much of the credit has to go to Desjardins for going out and bringing his signal-caller some playmakers that make the job of Burris, and everyone else, much easier. 

So just how vital have Ottawa's off-season acquisitions been to the team's success thus far in 2015? 

Well, had they not opened up their chequebook and spent big money in free agency, there's a far better chance the Redblacks are staring at an 0-2 record rather than sitting undefeated atop the East Division. 

Rogers and the fab-five have just been that good. Money well spent, Ottawa. 

Week Two Picks

BC Lions quarterback Travis Lulay will be making his return to the scene of the crime in week two action. Lulay re-injured his shoulder in his first start of 2014 at TD Place, and will be seeing his first regular season action since on the same field.

Wednesday's Weekly Halftime Post is a weekly series in which I offer opinions regarding any news of the past week, look ahead to the next week, justify my picks and answer a question of the week. Here's week two's post, starting with some headlines from the past week:
 
Injury bug harasses Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan Roughriders lost more than just the game itself on Friday night at Mosaic Stadium. They lost four key players to injury, and while some are more serious than others, those to their Canadian talent may hurt the most. You all know Darian Durant's situation, but it's the injuries to national middle linebacker Shea Emry and national safety Keenan Macdougal that'll really test Saskatchewan's depth. 2014 draft pick Rory Connop had a shaky first career start against Winnipeg, though he'll likely take on a full-time roll to account for Macdougal's part in the ratio, while Kevin Regimbald will replace Emry in the middle. Regimbald saw some action in the second half against Winnipeg, though the 'Riders preferred to go with three internationals for the most part in Emry's absence. It's time to find out how good Saskatchewan's Canadian depth actually is.

Laing avoids discipline

The league announced Tuesday that they will not be handing out any sort of discipline to Toronto Argonauts defensive tackle Cleyon Laing for his low hit on Edmonton Eskimos' quarterback Mike Reilly, stating Laing tripped on the foot of an offensive lineman while being pushed from behind by another. Despite this being the third time Laing has injured Reilly, I believe this probably was the right decision. There was no intent to injure on the play, nor did Laing "know where to fall". It's a shame that we won't be able to see Mike Reilly for another 10-12 weeks, but that was just one of those unavoidable plays.

Shaw Performers of the Week

As the old saying goes: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Well, the league unnecessarily decided to go-away with the traditional player of the week awards and instead decided to highlight three individuals each week regardless of their position, sort of like the "Three Stars of the Week." This wasn't all that well received, and for good reason. The first three in week one- Trevor Harris, Drew Willy and Jeff Fuller- all play offence, so the Top-Three list may favour quarterbacks, receivers and running backs. There's no more Canadian or Special Teams Player of the Week award, and that's slightly disappointed. Change is inevitable, I suppose.

Week Two Picks:

Hamilton (0-1) at Winnipeg (1-0)

Without a doubt the hardest game of the week to predict, this Tiger-Cats vs Blue Bombers game is expected to be a barn-burner at Investors Group Field. The 'Cats are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Calgary Stampeders in a Grey Cup re-match, while the Bombers are riding high after knocking off the Saskatchewan Roughriders at Mosaic Stadium for the first time in 11 years.

Hamilton's offence was very one-dimensional against Calgary, gaining 281 yards through the air versus a mere 37 on the ground, while only 24 yards on eight carries was contributed by fourth-string-turned-starting running back Ray Holley. The Bombers appear to be the ideal team for the Tiger-Cats to get their running attack going against, as they just gave up a whopping 212 yards on the turf to 'Rider running backs Anthony Allen and Jerome Messam. Keep in mind, 132 of those yards were gained on three plays alone, and the Bombers will be getting safety Maurice Leggett back in the lineup.

If Hamilton wants to beat the Bombers, they have to get pressure on quarterback Drew Willy. The Riders didn't bring all that many blitzes against the Bombers and Willy made them pay, completing 22 of 25 passes for 325 yards with three touchdowns. With running backs Paris Cotton and Cam Marshall coming off big games, and with Hamilton going up against Winnipeg's offensive line without All-star defensive end Eric Norwood, I'm not sure the 'Cats can stop Willy's offence. They'll have to outscore them on the other side of the football.

If pre-season games indicate anything, the Tiger-Cats won't have much of a problem putting up points against this defence. Collaros was ultra-efficient in Hamilton's exhibition victory over Winnipeg, while Holley had a nice first half himself. Winnipeg's defence looked shaky against Saskatchewan, giving up 497 total yards, although they should be able to focus on pass coverage after seeing Holley and Hamilton's offensive line struggle to run the ball last week despite the many three-man fronts the Stampeders lined up in. These teams appear to be so evenly matched that the winner may come to down to whichever team wins the turnover battle. I'll take the Bombers, who are 5-1 in their last 6 home openers, to defeat the Ti-Cats in front of hopefully a sold out crowd. In a game that I expect to be very, very close, and with the sample size of the two teams being so small just one week into the season, I'd rather not go against my Bombers.

Projected score: Winnipeg 31 Hamilton 27

Calgary (1-0) at Montreal (0-1)

The Alouettes are coming off a terrible first week of the CFL season that saw them lose two quarterbacks in starter Jonathon Crompton and backup Dan LeFevour to shoulder injuries in a losing effort. The Stampeders didn't have all that good of a week either, but ultimately defeated the Tiger-Cats 24-23 courtesy of a game-winning field goal by Rene Parades. Calgary's performance was anything but dominant as they snuck out with the win despite losing the turnover-battle 5-1. That came thanks to three uncharacteristic Bo Levi Mitchell interceptions and two failed third down conversions by Drew Tate.

Montreal will be going with two 23 year old rookie quarterbacks in the absence of Crompton and LeFevour. Both Canadian Brandon Bridge out of South Alabama and International Rakeem Cato out of Marshall may see playing time, and I don't see the results being very good against Calgary's ball-hawking defence. Both quarterbacks have tons of potential, but with their first test coming less than two weeks into their professional careers, some mistakes will be made, and they'll be costly. The Alouettes have to find a way to run the ball effectively on first down to put Bridge, who's expected to get the opening nod, in more manageable second down situations. Bridge puts a lot of trust into his powerful arm, and any interceptions thrown to Calgary may seal the Alouettes' fate.

Expect Bo Levi Mitchell to respond in a big way against Montreal coming off his first career three interception outing. Montreal's front seven is very talented, but unless their offence can be as efficient as Winnipeg's was against Saskatchewan, they wont be able to keep Calgary's offence in check long enough. I'd be surprised if Calgary's doesn't eclipse 450 yards of total offence. 

Score Prediction: Calgary 35 Montreal 10

BC (0-0) at Ottawa (1-0)

We're only one week into the new season and the Redblacks have already halved their win total of 2014 following a 20-16 victory over the Alouettes. While I'm not too sure what to expect from BC's offence, I know their defence will be problematic for Ottawa.

I'm not sold on Ottawa's offence yet. Quarterback Henry Burris tossed three first half interceptions in week one while running back Chevon Walker only gained 52 yards on 16 carries. Both the defensive and offensive lines of these two teams match up really well, however I'd be shocked if Walker improved on his week one rushing totals this week with Lions' linebackers Soloman Elimimian and Adam Bighill hunting him down. Burris and co. will improve as the weeks go on, but they'll have to sustain more drives than they did last week as BC's offence will be more effective than that of Montreal's was.

I'm interested to see what style of offence Head Coach Jeff Tedford and Offensive coordinator George Cortez bring to the Lions. Both are offensive masterminds, and they have talent in quarterback Travis Lulay and running back Andrew Harris to work with. Speaking of Lulay, it's unlikely he's forgotten how to play football despite his lengthy time away from the game due to ongoing shoulder issues. I don't think he'll dominate right out the gate, but it won't matter all too much with Harris carrying the load. The Redblacks have to focus on stopping Harris, and if they do, I expect Lulay to do enough through the air to guide BC to victory. 

Score Prediction: BC 20 Ottawa 17

Toronto (1-0) at Saskatchewan (0-1)

Everything that could've been said on Roughriders' quarterback Darian Durant's season ending injury has already been said. It's obviously devastating, but they signed Kevin Glenn for this reason. Glenn was serviceable, but less than stellar last year in BC, however I feel Saskatchewan offers the veteran signal-caller a better situation. Aside from likely an increased interception total, I don't think Saskatchewan's offence will be all that different with Glenn at the helm. 

What can I say about Trevor Harris and that Argonauts offence? Led by a fourth year quarterback making his second career start, the Argos had their way with Edmonton's supposedly overpowered defence. After seeing Winnipeg walk all over Saskatchewan's defence, I expect Scott Milanovich's group to do exactly the same. 

Kevin Glenn has to protect the football and their tailback tandem of Anthony Allen and Jerome Messam have to be effective. Mosaic Stadium and all of Rider Nation will be rocking, but if Toronto's offence resembles anything like it did against the Eskimos, the Argonauts should leave victorious. Saskatchewan will be missing middle linebacker Shea Emry and safety Keenan Macdougal, which will undoubtably hurt. 

Score prediction: Toronto 30 Saskatchewan 20 

Question of the Week: 

Q: Lance Keiser (@LWOSLance) asks: Do you expect to see a 2nd string QB be acquired at a premium at some point this season?

A: The last couple seasons have really proved how important a solid back-up quarterback is in this league. Just last season, the 'Riders lost Darian Durant for the year and away with Durant went their season. Saskatchewan won two of their next six games without Durant. And now in 2015, Durant's season is lost again, however Saskatchewan has highly recruited, well-travelled veteran Kevin Glenn to start in his absence. The Eskimos lost Mike Reilly while the Alouettes lost two in Jonathon Crompton and Dan LeFevour, though the former is only on the six-game injured list. Over in BC, the Lions' season can change with one hit if a defender gets a clean shot on Travis Lulay's shoulder and ends his season. As you can see, back-up quarterbacks are very important and as a result, are in very high demand. 

Although to answer your question, Lance, I don't think we'll see a blockbuster trade that sends a capable back-up like Drew Tate or Robert Marve to another club. As of right now, at least four teams (BC, Saskatchewan, Montreal and Edmonton) either have an injured starting quarterback or are without a proven back-up. There are few trading options left, and they'd be Drew Tate, Robert Marve/Brian Brohm or Thomas DeMarco, and I can't see any of these pivots being traded as the other teams have proven how quickly a season can change when a starting quarterback goes down. These back-up quarterback's hold too much value to be traded, and unless Jim Barker shocks the Country and trades the injured Ricky Ray, which obviously won't happen, we won't see any signal-callers traded this season. 

Bombers Need More Than a Great Middle Linebacker

 

Middle Linebacker Sam Hurl needs to be much better, but not all the blame regarding Winnipeg's run game should be directed at him. Photo via Winnipeg Blue Bombers (@wpg_bluebombers)

They're working with a new defensive coordinator, a new middle linebacker and a new season, but the Winnipeg Blue Bombers still can't stop the run. 

In week one of the 2015 season, the Blue & Gold's run defence looked no better than the ninth ranked unit they were against the run last season. Winnipeg gave up a whopping 212 yards on the ground to Saskatchewan, and almost all of the blame fell on the shoulders of newly signed middle linebacker Sam Hurl. And now, as a result, the Bombers appear prepared to make changes to improve their odds of slowing down their opponents' rushing attack in the coming weeks. 

I'll be the first to tell you that Sam Hurl was an underachiever in Saskatchewan and that he seemed to confirm this in his first game with the Bombers. That being said, I wouldn't say benching Winnipeg's free agent acquisition would solve all immediate matters, as stopping the run all starts with the big guys up front. 

The Bombers' two interior defensive lineman, Zach Anderson and Bryant Turner Jr., simply need to be better. Defensive tackles are supposed to cause havoc by plugging gaps, which helps the linebackers. They take on multiple blockers and as an added bonus, rack up tackles and sacks. Anderson and Turner Jr. did none of that, and it made Hurl's job all that more difficult. Saskatchewan rarely had to double-team Winnipeg's duo, instead allowing centre Dan Clark to quickly work up to the "second level" (the linebackers) knowing his guards, Brandon Labatte and Chris Best, could handle Winnipeg's interior. Hurl had very few opportunities to square up with Roughriders' running backs Anthony Allen and Jerome Messam, instead often being picked up by Clark or even double-teamed. The Bombers need Anderson and Turner Jr. to be far more disruptive as neither made their presence felt until late in the fourth quarter. 

When you look at the statistical numbers from the Bombers' win over Saskatchewan, the 212 rushing yards against clearly stands out, as does Hurl's low amount of tackles (four). It should be mentioned that 132 of those yards were gained on three carries, so Winnipeg's yards per carry may not have been that terrible. However, it's Hurl's inability to clean up tackles that were difference, particularly on Anthony Allen's 47 yard gallop. The University of Calgary product had a perfect angle to end the damage nine yards in but had his wrap-up tackle cleanly broken, resulting in 37 additional yards gained after-contact by Allen. And on Jerome Messam's big 53 yard touchdown, a great middle linebacker in Hurl's spot would've limited the gain to five yards. While Saskatchewan's offensive line opened up a huge hole, Hurl's blocker missed his cut block, however since he was late identifying the inside handoff, he was ultimately late to ball and Messam was gone. These are the plays that need to be made by a starting middle linebacker, and if Hurl can't make him, then it's next-man-up for the Bombers. 

Head Coach Mike O'Shea seems to be kicking the tires of 2014 second round pick Jesse Briggs and rotating him in at middle linebacker. I'm not sure how much this move will bolster the run defence (though it's worth a try), it provides the Bombers with more options in their coverage. The Bombers blitzed Sam Hurl on nearly or more than 50 percent of passing plays, and I'm quite sure that's due to the poor awareness in zone coverage he's displayed. With Hurl struggling mightily to supply any sort of pressure with a pass-rush, the Bombers were repeatedly burned by the blitz. Defensive coordinator Richie Hall finally took note of this in the fourth quarter and replaced Hurl with Greg Newman during passing situations, allowing another former 'Rider to cover the middle instead of having Hurl blitz. Briggs, meanwhile, is very athletic (he ran an insane 4.57 at the CFL combine) and excels as a coverage linebacker. Moving Khalil Bass into the middle with Briggs taking over at his weak-side position would make sense, but either way, increasing the McGill products' game reps is worth trying to bolster Winnipeg's linebacker play. 

But again, it wasn't all Hurl's fault. Take Nic Demski's 23 yard carry for example. The Bombers, as they did far too much Saturday night, blitzed Sam Hurl through the "A-gap" and were in man coverage. Nickel linebacker Chris Randle motioned with Demski and read the jet sweep perfectly, but took a terrible pursuit angle and was left in the wind. That play could've been a one yard gain, but Randle's poor play, as well as defensive end Thad Gibson's poor contain, resulted in a huge gain for Saskatchewan. 

Here's where Bombers safety Maurice Leggett would have flew in and limited the damage, but the former Kansas City Chief was out in week one with an undisclosed injury. His replacement, rookie Demetrius Wright, was ineffective, and having Leggett as a safety-net is the difference between a 50 yard gain and a tackle by Winnipeg's 2014 Most Outstanding Player limiting the damage to a mere 8 yards. 

Hurl underachieved, no doubt. Four tackles (one was on special teams) is not good enough, but no matter who the Bombers plug in at middle linebacker, the run-game-woes will continue until they establish some sort of presence along the interior of their defensive line. Starting Briggs will improve their pass defence (they gave up 285 yards through the air), but his presence as a run-stuffing middleman won't be noticed all that much without help from the four lineman up front. Having Leggett back too will help, but it's all about Zach Anderson, Bryant Turner Jr. and the rest of Winnipeg's defensive line to stop the run. 

The Bombers will get a good opportunity to get their run-defence on track against Hamilton in week two. The Tiger-Cats only managed to pick up 37 yards on the ground against Calgary's often-used three-man front, and they'll still be running with fourth string Ray Holley at tailback due to injuries. 

If the Bombers can figure it out and stop the run, they could be a very good team in 2015. And while Sam Hurl probably isn't a serviceable middle linebacker, it's not fair to put all the blame on him. 

League Hits Home Run with Rule Changes

 

Argos' pivot Trevor Harris put on an offensive clinic Saturday against the Eskimos, proving the potential of the league's new rule changes. Via CFL.ca

We're only one week into the 2015 CFL season, but it's already starting to appear as though the league hit a home run with the new rule changes that were announced in April.

The new rules were designed to further help offences move the ball and put up points. Many skeptics, myself included, were worried that offences in the league were already at an advantage and that these new rules would penalize good defence and lead to ridiculously high scoring games. That was not the case, however, and it was reassuring to see that the rules- particularly the updated 'illegal contact' infraction- didn't play out as drastically as many thought they would.

While offences are still gelling as the season is young, the average game in week one saw an average of 44 points scored per game (although of course, some points came from defences and special teams). That number is actually down from last season, where the average game saw 45.5 points per game. But it's week one, each team had some rust to shake off and adjustments to make.

Most notable was the smooth flow that the games followed, particularly in the Hamilton-Calgary and Winnipeg-Saskatchewan contests. Offences moved the ball consistently with very few two-and-out possessions that left fans yawning and changing the channel. Friday night's game saw much of that, but with even more good defensive plays by the defences of both Hamilton and Calgary. As expected, we saw far more zone coverage than normal with defences doing their best to contain receivers without having the option to slow their route down past the five yard contact zone. And as a result, we saw more interceptions from defensive backs being able to read the quarterback and jump the route in zone coverage rather than solely focusing on locking down their receiver in man-on-man. Interceptions are exciting plays, and excitement is exactly what the league was looking for when they announced these changes. Even in the lower scoring games, offences didn't struggle to move the ball, they simply failed to execute after gaining positive momentum or self-destructed via penalties.

Two quarterbacks in particular really showed the possibilities of the new rule changes. Both Winnipeg's Drew Willy and Toronto's Trevor Harris put on offensive clinics, dissecting their opposing defences while only throwing three incompletions each. Willy's Blue Bombers had 470 yards of total offence with three touchdowns through the air, and Harris' Argonauts matched that, reaching 484 yards of total offence with their own trio of passing touchdowns. And as I had predicted, the success of these young gun-slingers came at the expense of two veteran secondary's in Edmonton and Saskatchewan who were previously built to play a physical game on receivers and struggled to make the adjustment. These two quarterbacks displayed the exciting potential of the updated 'illegal contact' rule while not completely going over-board, if you will, as the two offences scored 30 and 26 points, respectively.

Another highly anticipated rule change- or highly controversial for some- was that of which prohibited the interior five lineman on each team's punt coverage unit from crossing the line of scrimmage prior to the football being kicked away. This was implemented to decrease the amount of no-yards penalties while bringing more open-field in the return game. I can't tell you if there was a decrease in flags on punt returns, but I can confirm that the league got a taste of what it had desired with this change. Tiger-Cats' ace Brandon Banks took a punt back for six points against Calgary, as expected, while a couple of other return touchdowns in other games were inevitably called back due to blocking infractions.

We saw true CFL-calibre games in week one. They were up-tempo (another factor caused by the rule changes), flowed well and featured offences putting up tons of yardage. Penalties weren't all too bad- Edmonton and Saskatchewan had many self-inflicted wounds- despite the players being new to the rules, while defensive coordinators quickly started to figure out what works and what doesn't when trying to slow down these offences. A plethora of zone coverage and a heavy pass-rush identified themselves as formulas for success, while genuinely skilled defensive backs with increased athleticism are necessary needs as well. The two secondary's that did the best in man coverage were those of Toronto and Ottawa, and they feature mostly young defensive backs that are relatively new to the league and don't rely on impeding a receivers' route to cover them. Those of Hamilton and Calgary, meanwhile, especially excelled in zone coverage, where their veteran defensive backs understand the coverage and angles of the wide field used in Canadian football. The new rules exposed some veterans' inability to cleanly cover, while some youngsters like A.J. Jefferson in Toronto and Brandyn Thompson in Ottawa proved their skill and athleticism in both types of coverage.

The sample-size still might be too small to say that these rule changes were a complete grand slam, but week one was a huge step in the right direction for the entertainment value of the game in two-down football. As defences continue to adjust and offences continue to improve, the games will only get more and more exciting. It's a positive sign for both the fans who love offence and for those who envy great defence, as both sides of the ball had their share of exciting moments. We didn't see any 100 point affairs, we didn't see a touchdown on every play there wasn't an illegal contact penalty, it all balanced out and made for some good week one football games.

The league can likely chalk up these rule changes as a success, and while there are still improvements to make elsewhere, they may want to start taking a look at a new problem, and that is the epic epidemic that is the health of the league's quarterbacks. Although, the CFL instilled confidence in myself that most of their rule changes are most likely for the better of the game, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt early on next time around they try to further better the game.